主讲人：黄棣芳助理研究员，中国科学院

主题：两家银行的故事： 当预期信用损失遭遇意外经济危机时（A Tale of Two Banks: When Expected Credit Loss Meets Unexpected Economic Crisis）

时间：2025年6月18日下午14:00 -16:00

地点：学术会堂603会议室

主持人：谢蓉蓉副教授，JINNIAN金年会官方网站

摘要：Policymakers and researchers have concerns that the expected credit loss (ECL) approach may exacerbate the procyclicality when the economic crisis is unexpected. Using administrative loan-level data in China, we find that banks adopting the ECL model reduced their credit supplies and became more prudent in lending decisions after the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak, compared with banks using the incurred credit loss (ICL) approach. Our findings are more pronounced for the banks that experienced greater loan loss provisions induced by ECL. The credit crunch is potentially long-lasting. We further document the negative externality of ECL during the recession period on the borrowing firms. These findings support the conjecture that ECL may exacerbate the procyclicality during unexpected economic crises.

主讲人简介：中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院助理研究员。他的主要研究领域涵盖金融科技和人工智能，研究成果发表在自然科学和金融管理领域期刊，如PNAS、PNAS Nexus、Nature Human Behaviour、Management Science、Journal of Accounting Research、Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis等。

撰稿 | 谢蓉蓉 林雯

校对 | 王彦超 王伟

排版 | 党颖欣

审核 | 吴溪